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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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